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’08 Watch: ARG Poll Puts Clinton Well Ahead in NH

by Pamela Leavey

The latest ARG poll puts Hillary Clinton way ahead in NH and on the other side of the aisle, “Mitt Romney holds a narrow lead over Rudy Giuliani.”

The American Research Group’s July survey had Obama and Clinton in a tie, although other New Hampshire surveys found that the former first lady held a solid lead over the Illinois senator.

The radically different numbers released today by ARG for August — Clinton at 37 percent, Obama 17 percent, Edwards 14 percent, Richardson 7 percent — gave her an even bigger lead than other national surveys.

The Boston Globe reports that over the border from NH, “Hillary Clinton pocketed another big-name Massachusetts endorsement this morning, announcing that House Speaker Salvatore F. DiMasi is supporting her presidential bid.”

It’s time to restore strong, competent leadership to the White House and Hillary Clinton is ready to do the job from her first day in office,” DiMasi said in a statement provided by the Clinton campaign. “Senator Clinton has the experience and vision to lead America at home and abroad in these trying times.”

Clinton also received the endorsement of the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers on Thursday:

The IAM is among the nation’s largest industrial trade unions, representing over 700,000 active and retired members in airline, aerospace, manufacturing, railroad, woodworking and shipbuilding industries, and is a member of the AFL-CIO.

“Hillary Clinton earned the IAM’s endorsement by focusing on jobs, health care, education and trade – the bread and butter issues of the American middle class,” said IAM International President Tom Buffenbarger. “She is the only candidate of either party to come forward with a comprehensive manufacturing policy and the only candidate to connect with millions of Americans who feel invisible to the current administration.”

The IAM has big plans for backing Clinton’s candidacy. They will “launch a massive education campaign among IAM members and extensive publicity in union publications and websites nationwide.”

Twenty-five states with over 450,000 active and retired IAM members will vote in the three weeks starting with the Iowa caucuses and ending with the polls closing in California on February 5th.

The news of the IAM endorsement for Clinton follows the news that the IAFF endorsed Chris Dodd on Tuesday, and Clinton received the endorsement of the UTA. John Edwards also got a labor endorsement on Thursday — the 520,000-member United Brotherhood of Carpenters and Joiners.

In other Election ’08 news, Fred Thompson, who has drawn out making it official that he’s running, has finally set a date to make his announcement. Politico reported that he will announce on September 6. All well and good, but there’s already speculation that Thompson may have waited too long.

Democrats, including Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton scrambled to divest of funds raised by Norman Hsu, who turned out to be a fugitive in a fraud case in California. Clinton will donate the $23,000 to charity and the N.Y. Times reports that Obama has plans to “intended to give away $7,000 that Mr. Hsu contributed to his committees.” Jeralyn at TalkLeft had noted at first the Obama campaign had intended on keeping the money.

The race is heating up and the primary calendar is now absurdly stacked.

3 Responses to “’08 Watch: ARG Poll Puts Clinton Well Ahead in NH”

  1. No. 1 and No. 2 are both still active members of the Senate. In the leadup to September thay have been conspicuous by their absence from the greater battle, but have really been joined by so many others also. At the end of September it would be great to credit one, or both, or even they and all others for having just fought the good fight.

    I wish I could be optimistic.

  2. obama received 2000 for his 04 senate run and the rest went to his pack. None went to his campaign for president.
    Unlike Hillary who has received a great deal from this man. as a matter of fact, I have noticed how no one is asking to her claim about having soooooooooo many donating to her she could not possibly know, is that Hsu was one of clinton’s biggest hillraiser so how could she not.
    As for polls, well, Howard Dean was inevitable in august of 03. and Kerry was doa at that time.
    dont’ put too much into those polls.

  3. SUMMARY: Unless something changes, Clinton will win the Democratic party nomination, Romney (!) will win several states that vote in January, but Super Tuesday (Feb. 5), which includes California and New York (Giuliani strongholds) will probably decide the Republican party nomination (Thompson is an X-factor).

    I think Iowa (Jan. 14), Michigan (Jan. 15), South Carolina (Jan. 19/29), Nevada (Jan. 19), New Hampshire (Jan. 22, but could move up), Florida (Jan. 29), California (Feb. 5) and New York (Feb. 5) will likely determine the Presidential candidates for November 2008.

    I have been following the state-by-state polling using a Wikipedia site that collects and tracks such data (sources for all polls are fully attributed). (FYI, I’m the “chart guy” on these sites.) I provide my personal observations of the trends for each race below.

    Romney has a solid 15 point lead on everyone else, and about 30-35% of voters are still undecided.

    Romney has a solid 9 point lead on everyone else, and about 30% of voters are still undecided and Thompson is showing strength.

    ====South Carolina====
    Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-25% of the vote, and over 30% remain undecided.

    Romney has a 5 point lead on Thompson and they are running neck-in-neck, and about 25% of voters are still undecided.

    ====New Hampshire====
    Romney has a 10 point lead on everyone else, and about 20% of voters are still undecided.

    Similar to South Carolina, Thompson (strengthening) and Giuliani (weakening) are the front-runners each having about 20-30% of the vote, and over 25% remain undecided.

    Giuliani (weakening) maintains 30% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has nearly crossed the 20% mark, and about 20-25% remain undecided.

    ====New York====
    Giuliani (weakening) maintains 45% support, and Thompson (strengthening) has crossed the 10% mark, and about 25% remain undecided.

    Clinton is slowly building and recently passed Edwards. Obama is within 5 points and keeping pace with Clinton. 30% remain undecided.

    Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with 20-25% undecided.

    ====South Carolina====
    Clinton leads Obama by about 5 points. About 20-25% remain undecided.

    Clinton commands a 15-20% lead on Obama with about 30% undecided.

    ====New Hampshire====
    Clinton has expanded her lead to about 15 points on Obama with about 20-30% undecided.

    Clinton commands a 20% lead on Obama with about 25-30% undecided.

    Clinton has a 30% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.

    ====New York====
    Clinton has a 30-40% lead on Obama with about 20% undecided.