The American Research Group, New Hampshire’s leading polling company shows in their latest New Hampshire poll that “John McCain is tanking.” ARG president Dick Bennett, says, “That’s the big thing [we’re finding]. In New Hampshire a year ago he got 49 percent among independent voters. That number’s way down, to 29 percent now.”

And Bennett says it’s not just in New Hampshire that “McCain is tanking,” ARG is in fact finding that the trend is similar “in other states polled, including early primary battlegrounds like Iowa and Nevada.”

“We’re finding this everywhere,” he says.

The main reason isn’t hard to find: His hawkish stance on the Iraq war, which is tying him ever more closely to an unpopular president. “Independent support for McCain is evaporating because they view him as tied to Bush,” says Bennett.

The McCain camp yesterday said the senator, who is pushing for a bigger troop surge in Iraq than the president, will stick by his guns. “He has been and will remain committed to achieving victory in Iraq,” a spokesman said.

It’s still early, however, Larry Sabato, who chairs the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics says, “It’s significant that McCain is going down rather than up at this critical juncture in the early maneuvering. It suggests that, contrary to conventional wisdom, John McCain may not be secure as the GOP front-runner. But a lot can change.”

The latest Zogby for New hampshire shows that McCain “leads with 26% support, six points ahead of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani.”

Early polls like these really are meaningless but I do feel there’s some significance to McCain’s big slip. The American public wants out of Iraq, the longer McCain holds on, the more his base of supporters may slip.

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