I wouldn’t attempt to predict what will happen in this November’s elections, but many for many people making predictions is part of their job. While I take all such predictions with a grain of salt, it is still amusing to watch the trend. Overall the possibility of the Democrats taking control of one or both houses of Congress is being considered increasingly realistic. The Washington Post reports that many House seats which were considered safe for Republicans are now believed to be in play:

Stuart Rothenberg, editor and publisher of a political newsletter, now has 42 Republican districts, including Drake’s, on his list of competitive races. Last September, he had 26 competitive GOP districts, and Drake’s wasn’t on the list. “That’s a pretty significant increase,” he said. “The national atmospherics are making long shots suddenly less long.”

At the Cook Political Report, Amy Walter has revised an analysis of the battle for control of the House, taking into account the sour mood toward Republicans nationally as a potentially significant factor in races that might otherwise turn on local issues, candidate performance or the size of campaign war chests.

“In a nationalized election, the typical laws of gravity get thrown out the window,” Walter said. “Under-funded candidates beat better-funded candidates, and entrenched incumbents lose to first-time challengers.”

UPDATE: Adam Nagourney also reports In House Races, More G.O.P. Seats Look Vulnerable

Filed under: Elections, In The News, Politics, Republicans | Get Permalink or trackback |