Let’s Turn the Northeast a Deeper Shade of Blue
by Pamela LeaveyLet’s turn the Northeast a deeper shade of blue. That’s part of the strategy the Democrats are taking in their efforts this year to win back the House.
In the battle for control of the House of Representatives, Democrats are concentrating their efforts on defeating a particularly resilient set of opponents, Northeast Republicans who have held their seats despite the region’s tendency to vote Democratic.
Independent analysts say there are at least a dozen competitive races in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Connecticut, many involving districts where voters have supported Democrats for president in recent elections while electing Republicans to Congress.
Now, with many polls showing President Bush’s support at its lowest level yet, Democrats in those districts are running heavily against the president, hoping to tie Republican incumbents to his agenda. The Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to take control of the House, where Republicans have had a majority since 1994. Party strategists believe that the Northeast, with the largest number of potentially competitive battles, could provide Democrats with the bulk of those seats.
The Democrats are focusing on eight representatives from districts in the Northeast where Bush “lost in the presidential election of 2004.”
Perhaps more problematic for these Republicans is the fact that voters in their states seem to have greater misgivings about the direction of the nation under Mr. Bush than voters elsewhere.
In a CBS News Poll conducted in April, for example, 43 percent of adults nationwide said the United States made the right decision in going to war in Iraq. But only about a third of voters in Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania held that view, according to a similar poll conducted by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
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I’ve always been waiting for the other shoe to drop here. The Republicans have a huge majority in the most conservative region of the country (i.e. the South) it seems only right the NE should have a big majority (not just a majority) of it’s House and Senate members be Democrats.
Kerry not only won all 117 electoral college votes in the Northeast, he also beat Bush 55.8%-43.0% in the total northeast popular vote. If people in the NE voted for Congress like they did for president, we might even have a Democratic House.
That’s the obvious cost of the Republicans moving so far to the right to attract the South.
As long as the Republicans had moderates and even some liberals, they were able to win elections in the Northeast. Now that the Republicans have moved so far to the right. control of Congress is a major concern, and people in the Northeast will see more reason to vote for Democrats, even if they have a more moderate candidate locally.
This is something I first heard about a couple of months ago on Washington Week. John Harwood brought it up, and at the time I thought he seemed it quit interested in the Dem’s strategy. If the GOP could make the South more red in ‘94, why not make the Northeast more blue in ‘06.
Now mind you, I don’t think this is the Dems only strategy this year – but just one of several – it is a good start though.